The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has spoken of a ’slow and fragile’ recovery for UK businesses during the second quarter of this year, in what must be considered the most optimistic economic forecast since the start of the financial crisis.
The forecast points to a modest future growth in the second half of 2010 as it suggests that the worst of the recession may well be behind us. CBI Director General Richard Lambert admits that “The recession is by no means over, but we (CBI) see a very weak return to growth by Spring 2010.”
In the first hint that some of the governments policies may be working, Lambert suggests that the aggressive rate cuts, weak pound, low inflation and the global fiscal stimulus are showing signs of stabilising the sinking ship and will slow the decline in the UK this year. However the hardship is not behind us and unemployment is predicted to continue to grow and peak in the second quarter of 2010 at around 3.25million.
If nothing else the report provides a reasonable ‘feel good’ factor and coming from the CBI will hopefully have a positive effect on businesses and public alike.
3 comments so far
1 Abraham Mehti Anthony // May 3, 2009 at 12:29 pm
What basis do you declare the worst is behind us? Dangerous assumption made here.
2 Abraham Mehti Anthony // May 3, 2009 at 12:32 pm
2010, this, 2010 that. It means absolutely nothing to me. There are too many variables (most of which are unpredictable) to declare that things are going to be better or worse in 2010. Can we try and deal with the situation at hand and prepare for the worst rather than dream of a bright future. Besides dreaming won’t make it happen. Only our actions can ensure that the recession ends. So take these half baked forecasts and throw them out of the window.
3 john williams // May 5, 2009 at 10:47 am
The ‘assumption’ is not mine, but as clearly stated in the title and content, comes from the CBI.